Northern Virginia’s real estate and housing market went through some big changes in 2025. As we step into 2026, a new report predicts what the market has in store in the new year.
The 2026 Regional Housing Market Forecast, produced by the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors (NVAR) and George Mason University’s Center for Regional Analysis, predicts that the region’s market will “continue to find balance in 2026.”
In 2025, the NoVA housing market was subject to uncertainty as factors like mass federal worker layoffs and a prolonged government shutdown impacted the area. One significant factor was a spike in inventory throughout the year. In November, the most recently available data from NVAR, inventory was at 2,042 homes. That’s a 45.1 percent increase year over year. Median prices in November were $740,000, a 5.7 percent increase from the year prior.
Moving into 2026, the Housing Market Forecast predicts that interest rates will hover around 6 percent, and the area will continue to have higher levels of inventory. It also says that home prices will rise at a moderate pace, “reflecting continued demand alongside a gradual increase in available inventory.” While this will lessen some of the competition in the market, affordability will remain a concern.
“The Northern Virginia market is entering a more stable phase,” said NVAR CEO Ryan McLaughlin. “While affordability pressures continue, the fundamentals of our region — strong employment, a diverse economy, and sustained demand — position us well for a year of steady, sustainable growth.”
NVAR’s report differs slightly from a forecast released last month by listing service Bright MLS, which said that uncertainty around the federal government could pose a challenge to the region’s market in 2026. Spiked inventory could mean sellers need to adjust price expectations, Bright MLS predicted. It said that home price growth in the area would be weak, and that some markets might even see declines in prices.
NVAR’s Predictions by Jurisdiction
NVAR’s 2026 housing market report offers predictions for how Northern Virginia’s counties and cities will perform this year by jurisdiction. The predictions below are for single-family units.
- In Fairfax County, NVAR predicts that home prices will rise 1.9 percent in 2026. Average monthly unit sales will go up 8.4 percent.
- In Arlington, median prices are expected to rise 3.8 percent. While inventory will spike by 27.8 percent, sales are forecast to rise only 1.1 percent.
- Alexandria will have a 4.2 percent increase in price, with a 4.5 percent increase in sales.
- Prince William County prices will stay flat, with a 0.2 percent decline. Sales will increase 3 percent.
- In Loudoun County, NVAR predicts median prices will increase 3.3 percent. Sales will increase 7.6 percent to meet demand from a 36.2 percent increase in inventory.
- Prices will lower in Stafford County, with a 4.6 percent decline. The number of homes will go down as well, by 2.4 percent, but inventory will grow by 33.3 percent.
Feature image, stock.adobe.com
