The DMV real estate market is expected to remain somewhat sluggish in 2026. That’s according to a recent report from listing service Bright MLS.
The annual housing forecast predicts that the U.S. will see a “transition year” when it comes to real estate. This will include easing mortgage rates and rising inventory that will “help reset the market, even as broader economic uncertainty keeps a full rebound out of reach.”
Nationally, the forecast predicts that mortgage rates will lower slightly from 6.25 percent to about 6.15 percent. Inventory will increase nearly 11 percent, and home prices will grow only about 0.9 percent.
“The 2026 housing market will be shaped by uncertainty — economic, demographic, and regional,” said Bright MLS economist Lisa Sturtevant. “While lower mortgage rates and more inventory will bring some buyers back, this will be a reset year, not a rebound year. Market performance will hinge on local economic conditions, making 2026 one of the most geographically divided markets we’ve seen in years.”
Federal Government Drives Market Uncertainty
In the DC area, Bright MLS says that the uncertainty around the federal government throughout 2025 — including the 44-day federal shutdown — could pose a challenge to the region’s market.
Inventory in the DC market increased more rapidly than in other Mid-Atlantic markets, with a predicted 44.2 percent increase from 2024 to 2025. Some of that, Bright MLS said, came from “workers, particularly those near retirement, leaving federal government employment and the region.”
That spike in inventory means that sellers may need to adjust price expectations. Bright MLS forecasts that the median home price at the end of 2025 will be $623,140. That figure will reduce by 3 percent to $616,700 in 2026, it predicts.
With that, the forecast predicts sales will increase 7.8 percent between 2025 and 2026 “as opportunistic buyers are able to take advantage of more inventory and lower rates.” But that’s slower than the national predicted increase of 9 percent.
The North Central Virginia market region has also seen impacts from changes to the federal government and will see similar increased inventory and lower rates. Bright MLS predicts that this region will see 9.9 percent more sales between 2025 and 2026. Home price will increase 1.5 percent.
Inventory will continue to rise, but not as sharply. Where inventory rose almost 50 percent between 2024 and 2025, Bright MLS predicts an 18.2 percent increase in 2026.
Feature image, stock.adobe.com
