The number of homes expected to go on the market in 2024 and price growth will slow, according to a just-released real estate forecast.
Bright MLS 2024 Mid-Atlantic Housing Forecast predicts that while more houses will go up for sale, the number will remain below pre-pandemic levels. The forecast said that at the end of 2023, it expects a 25 percent increase in the number of active listings from a year ago, but still significantly fewer than in 2019.
“After a very difficult market for buyers who have had to contend with a challenging housing market in 2023, Mid-Atlantic home shoppers will find more options in 2024,” said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist for Bright MLS.
“At the same time, both buyers and sellers will have to reset expectations next year for persistently higher mortgage rates and more negotiations during the transaction.”
For the entire mid-Atlantic area, Bright MLS expects 2024 sales to be up 13.5 percent over 2023 and that more sellers will opt to put their homes on the market as family and financial circumstances change.
As mortgage rates decline and head toward 6 percent, Bright MLS said more homes will go on the market.
The decision to sell will lead to a 9.3 percent increase in housing inventory for the mid-Atlantic region, which includes parts of NoVA, Maryland, Delaware, and southern Pennsylvania. Overall, there will be more sales activity in smaller, more affordable markets.
Across the mid-Atlantic, Bright MLS said the overall 2023 median sale price is forecasted to be $383,300, up 2 percent from 2022.
“Overall, the median price is forecasted to rise by 1.8 percent between 2023 and 2024, with the slowest pace of home price appreciation in the Washington, DC, metro area (+1 percent),” the market outlook said.
The DC metro area for Bright MLS includes Arlington, Fairfax, and Loudoun counties, as well as Alexandria.
In the DC market, which includes DC and the Maryland counties of Prince George’s, Montgomery, and Frederick, it’s expected that that the median sales price in 2024 will jump to $569,930 from $564,340 in 2023.
Nationwide, Bright MLS predicts in 2024 mortgage rates will come down from their two-decade high, settling in between 6 and 6.5 percent. While affordability will remain an issue, lower rates and more homes on the market will bring out more buyers.
The national market report said there is “no evidence to suggest that there will be major, widespread home price corrections in 2024. … Right now, the outlook is for a mild and short recession in 2024, which will not have a major impact on the housing market.”
Bright MLS forecasts five real estate markets — Miami, San Diego, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, and Riverside, California — will see median prices decline more than 5 percent in 2024.
The real estate forecasts from Bright MLS come from an analysis of Bright MLS sales and listing data, as well as mortgage rate data from Freddie Mac.
Feature image, stock.adobe.com
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