Does the local housing industry get a bump—up or down—during an election year? That question is not one that is easily answered. It’s as diverse as the niche markets. We spoke with a handful of analysts, agents and brokers to find out what they’re hearing from clients and what they see in the numbers.
“For the common person, there is little to no effect. But this year might be a little different if Donald Trump wins because I don’t think he’s going to hire the same people that a more mainstream Republican president would. If you take a look at his trusted advisers in terms of who he works with on a regular basis, he’s definitely not a typical politician. The people that will move here have a lot of money. So they would buy into different market segments in the area, especially if they think he’ll be here eight years. It will definitely have an impact on the luxury market.” –Andrew Strauch, vice president of product innovation and marketing at MRIS
“It usually is not the elections that are the direct result of the housing sales; it’s simply because there are policies or market changes or interest rate changes or whatever else. From our standpoint, the biggest driver for this marketplace is the economy overall, and what is really going to drive this market is that we are in a pretty normal market with relatively good balance between demand and supply. Washington, D.C., is hotter than the suburban markets in general. What’s interesting is, with interest rates at about 3.5 percent, frankly demand should be higher than what it is. The biggest driver as to why there aren’t more people chomping at the bit to buy homes is because of the overall economic situation: Real incomes haven’t risen dramatically over the last 15 years, and until real incomes go up, we’re not going to see a huge boom in housing regardless of what happens in the elections. It’s ultimately about people’s ability to afford to buy homes and their confidence in their own individual futures and their own income.” –David Howell, executive vice president and CIO of McEnearney Associates in McLean
“I think there is the uncertainty [with the election], but I think that is overplayed a little bit because the majority of the jobs aren’t political or political appointee-type jobs; they’re long-term government positions, and it doesn’t matter who is in charge of the administration. While there is some fluctuation in an election year, there isn’t as much as people think. There are some extremely tight credit policies that are limiting the full recovery. What we need is a responsible, sustainable model for home ownership—not necessarily that if you breathe you can get a loan, but some kind of in-between, not being as strict as they became. There are some people who are a little more hesitant to get into the market because they saw what happened with prices going down, and they think that might be able to happen again.” –Brian Block, managing broker, Realtor with RE/MAX Allegiance in Alexandria and board member of Northern Virginia Association of Realtors
“I think the election is going to have, and it already has had, a huge impact on what’s happening with the market. There are people who are sitting on the sidelines until after the election. People are just worried about that. There is a possibility, depending on what happens. People are worried about maybe no matter which way [the election] goes it will affect the stock market, and people are tightening their belts. If it’s a first-time homebuyer, they might not care, but if it’s people who are having to sell a house, the move-up or move-down buyers, it seems like they are staying put and holding on to their money as opposed to spending the money they don’t have to spend.” –Jen Walker, Realtor with McEnearney Associates Inc.
“During an election year, we see a little bit of a slowdown in our area. People are staying cautious; they’re waiting to see who gets elected. I don’t know if it causes a slowdown in the market as a whole, but I do know people’s attentions are diverted to that moreso than buying a home, then coupled with who is going to get elected because policies can change. We do see a little dip in the market before an election.” –Christina Macro, real estate broker with Keller Williams Metro Center
