It’s common wisdom that the Northern Virginia area has seen tremendous economic gains over the past decade or more, and that’s true. But a recent report finds that those gains have been concentrated in some hands, and have completely missed others.
The report “Lost Opportunities: The Persistence of Disadvantaged Neighborhoods in Northern Virginia,” by the Center on Society and Health at Virginia Commonwealth University and commissioned by the Northern Virginia Health Foundation, examined economic growth and prosperity in the region at the census tract level.
Census tracts are geographically stable areas, generally with visible boundaries, that house between 1,200 and 8,000 people. The report examined economic trends in tracts between 2009 and 2013, and again between 2017 and 2021.
The top-line numbers are good: In Northern Virginia, defined here as Alexandria, Arlington County, Fairfax County, Loudoun County, and Prince William County, 52 percent of the census tracts saw declines in poverty rates in 2017–2021 compared with 2009–2013, while the median household income increased in 92 percent. The percentage of adults with high school diplomas and college degrees went up, and the uninsured rate went down, in the majority of tracts as well.
But in many of what the report calls “islands of disadvantage,” living conditions have stayed about the same — or gotten worse. And many of the improvements that can be found looked like signs of gentrification, the report explains — the result of more affluent people moving into a poor area and driving up the costs and property values so that the residents who had lived there are displaced.
The report breaks down the numbers for each jurisdiction:
Alexandria
While there were some gains in the “islands of disadvantage” over the 2017 report — for example, a drop in the poverty rate from 9 percent to 7 percent and a rise in household median income in one tract near Francis C. Hammond Middle School, which has a Black population of 29 percent and a Hispanic population of 22 percent — conditions were worse in the Beauregard and Landmark areas. The report highlighted one tract in the Shirley-Duke area where the poverty rate grew from 7 percent to 19 percent.
One tract in the Potomac Yard/Del Ray area saw what the report called evidence of gentrification: Median household income shot up from $82,000 to $116,000 — as the white population of the area went from 38 percent to 56 percent.
Arlington
One tract in the National Landing area of Crystal City saw the poverty rate rise from 9 percent to 19 percent, while tracts in the Hall’s Hill and Lyon Park/Fort Myer areas saw increases in poverty.
A tract in the Courthouse area saw the median household income go from $87,000 to more than $132,000, while the white population grew from 48 percent to 68 percent.
There were improvements: One mostly nonwhite area along Columbia Pike saw median household income climb from $42,000 to nearly $65,000.
Fairfax County
One section of Bailey’s Crossroads saw the poverty rate climb from 17 percent in 2009–2013 to 30 percent in 2017–2021, while child poverty nearly doubled. Other increases in poverty happened in tracts in the Centreville, Merrifield, Fair Oaks, Hybla Valley, and Lorton areas, among others, while an area in Chantilly that’s mostly Asian and Hispanic saw the poverty rate fall from 23 percent to 3 percent.
Loudoun County
In one tract in the Dulles Town Center area, the median household income actually declined between the 2009–2013 survey and the 2017–2021 period, from $83,636 to $78,787, while the poverty rate rose.
Prince William County
The Marumsco area of Woodbridge was among the bottom 10 percent in eight of the 10 indicators the report used to make its determinations. And while a majority-Black tract near Potomac Hills in Dale City saw the median household income go from $60,000 to more than $85,000, poverty rates increased in other tracts in Dale City, as well as Manassas, Dumfries, and other areas.
Sobering Stats
The report points out that disparities like this have a real health impact: Life expectancy across Fairfax County and Prince William County can vary by 15 years, and the premature death rate can vary sixfold. In Loudoun County, those numbers are 10 years and threefold; in Arlington County, 11 years and fivefold; in Alexandria, 11 years and fourfold; and in Prince William County, 11 years and nearly fivefold.
The latest report includes numbers taken during the COVID-19 pandemic, when federal, state and local relief programs and other benefits increased. Many of those supports ended this year, so it’s not known whether matters will get worse.
The report said the way to narrow the disparities lies in investments in education and affordable housing, as well as food security and employment opportunity.
Patricia N. Mathews, president of the Northern Virginia Health Foundation, said in a statement that the report can show policymakers specifically what each neighborhood needs.
“These data show, at the census tract level, which neighborhoods are being left behind and what kinds of investments they need, whether in health care, education, job opportunities, or affordable housing or transportation,” she said.
“Everyone deserves to share in our region’s social and economic progress — not just those who are already doing well,” she said. “For that to happen, we must dismantle the structural barriers that stand in the way.”
Read the full report.
Feature image, stock.adobe.com
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