Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered nuclear forces into high alert on Sunday after citing tough financial sanctions — including on the country’s central bank — and pressure from NATO, which has called on Russia to “immediately cease its military assault, to withdraw all its forces from Ukraine and to turn back from the path of aggression it has chosen.”
Michael Hunzeker, a professor and associate director of the Center for Security Policy Studies at George Mason University’s Schar School of Policy and Government, says that Northern Virginians don’t necessarily have to worry about Putin’s nuclear threats, noting he doesn’t believe nuclear action is inevitable — he’s not “digging a bunker in [his] backyard yet.” But dealing with an actor like Putin is a situation when U.S. national security should be prepared for the worst.
“It is very difficult to get people to talk about hypotheticals, but this is literally what we spend trillions of dollars on the national security community for — that’s what they’re supposed to do, is engage in worst-case-scenario hypotheticals so we can be ready for them,” he explains. “One percent chance of a really bad outcome means you should probably spend some time thinking, and I think we have definitely moved into a world where this isn’t hypothetical.”
Mark N. Katz, a Russian expert and another professor at GMU’s Schar School, sees Putin’s invocation of the nuclear option as a threat, rather than an actual change at this time.
“It’s more of a warning — that ‘if you cross my red line, and you don’t know what my red line really is, then God help you,’” he says.
But he senses that things could escalate further within the next week or so, noting that the war’s current state is too stagnant for Putin not to take further action — and wouldn’t be surprised if the president began targeting Ukrainian civilians.
Hunzeker agrees that Putin’s words could just be a stern warning after facing military setbacks, but one that can’t be discounted.
“I also … do not think we can discount the possibility, the very real possibility that this isn’t just signaling and bluster — that he really is letting us know he might be willing to consider the use of nuclear weapons, either for battlefield purposes … or for deterrent purposes to keep us out,” Hunzeker says.
He continued, “If he were to do it, does that mean missiles are flying in DC? I think unlikely. But the United States would be in a very difficult position, and would face immense pressure to respond, depending on how exactly that scenario played out.”
Putin expected his invasion of Ukraine to be an easy task, but Ukrainian defenses, as well as foreign and even domestic response, prove that to not be the case, Katz explained. “I just think he overestimated capabilities and really underestimated Ukrainian nationalism, which he himself has made stronger from his actions,” he says.
Hunzeker also echoed this sentiment, stating that Putin has miscalculated in this campaign of invasion already.
“From the opening days of the campaign, he seemed to expect Ukraine to fold quickly — he was wrong about that. If his goal was to break NATO, he seems to have done the opposite of that,” he says. “So if in his mind, using tactical nuclear weapons allows him to assert superiority quickly, he may quickly find that that’s not exactly how NATO and the West respond.”
Now, Russia faces opposition in its own streets — anti-war protests over the move into Ukraine have erupted across the country, from Moscow to St. Petersburg to Siberia.
“This has not gone as well as he [Putin] had thought it would. And the thing is, the longer this conflict goes on, the more problems he can have domestically,” Katz explains.
He notes that popular uprising is something Putin fears, and has even blamed other countries and leaders for being at fault for demonstrations put on by Russian citizens in the past.
“I think for Putin the idea that a fellow Slavic country … might possibly become democratic, economically successful, that this would undermine his own regime,” he says. “If Russians see that, ‘Hey, why can’t we have what they have,’ this would hurt him — and what he fears more than anything [are these] popular uprisings, which he calls color revolutions.”
As the first round of talks with Russia close, Ukraine is seeking to join the European Union. Katz says Ukraine has attempted to join the EU before — a move popular amongst the country’s citizens, who saw it as a chance to attend school, work, and travel more freely across Europe — but that then-president Viktor Yanukovych was “bludgeoned” out of the move by Putin.
“They were up in arms, because their expectations had been raised. And so opposition rose to him, and then early 2014, he ends up fleeing,” Katz says of Yanukovych, who was convicted of treason in 2019 for inviting Russia to invade Ukraine. Soon after the former president fled following the country’s uprisings, Russia’s invasion and annexation of Crimea — which Russian nationalists, and more Russians in general, truly see as part of Russia, Katz says.
Feature image, kosmos111/stock.adobe.com
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