Apple’s weather app pulled off a real snow job last weekend.
For many Northern Virginians, the most recent winter storm began not with falling snow, but with a glance at their phones. Apple’s weather app projected double-digit snowfall totals across the region. Those predictions spread quickly through group chats and neighborhoods and grocery store aisles. Another Snow-mageddon?
“I did buy enough food for two weeks (or 40 people) and upped my snow wardrobe with snow pants and thigh-high snow boots,” says Herndon resident Lisa Stucky. “I was certainly concerned, but knew we could only do so much to prepare.”
By Sunday evening, however, the storm that was supposed to bury the region for days on end had largely slipped away — leaving bitter cold, snow, sleet, and some confusion.
“It’s kind of amazing, actually,” says NBC4 chief meteorologist Doug Kammerer. “(Apple’s weather app predicted) upwards of 18 to 23 inches for the last storm more than a week out. We cannot make that kind of a forecast. We just can’t.”
Kammerer recently weighed in publicly, posting on social media to caution residents against relying on the app’s projections. “Again!! The darn Apple app is scaring people showing a total of 14–17 inches this weekend,” Kammerer wrote on January 26. “Do not listen to it, no meteorologist actually looks at it.”
Behind the scenes, Kammerer says the issue is how the app generates its forecasts. “On the Apple app, there’s no meteorologist who actually looks at it,” he says. “They’re just taking straight model data … and that’s why you come up with these huge numbers. And that’s also why you see things change so fast on those apps.”
The storm, Kammerer notes, was also mischaracterized in another critical way. “We had 6.8 inches [of precipitation] at the airport, and that included nearly two to three inches of sleet,” he says. “There was not a single mention of the ice with that forecast… and that had a completely different impact on our area, because we’re still digging out from the ice. It’s so much harder to dig out of the ice than it is the snow.”
For Kammerer, the takeaway is that context matters.
“It alerted people that there could be a storm — that’s fine,” he says. “But when you start to put out [inflated snow accumulation] totals, it’s really kind of irresponsible.”
His advice for future storms is science-based.
“You will not see my totals, my official numbers, until two days out, 48 hours out,” Kammerer says. “Things can change, so you’re never going to see us more than two days out giving snowfall totals.”
As for the next storm on the horizon for this coming weekend? Kammerer is clear. “There’s a big coastal storm, but it’s not going to hit us,” he says. “Just a couple of days ago, that same [Apple weather] app was putting out more than a foot of snow in our area — and that’s not going to happen at all.”
Feature image, enesdigital/stock.adobe.com
