Update: The redistricting proposal was confirmed on December 28, 2021, after a revision that split Prince William County between two districts. Recently proposed redistricting maps would dramatically shift Prince William County’s legislative borders, reflecting the county’s enormous growth over the last decade while opening the door for newbies to hold state office.
The Supreme Court of Virginia unveiled a set of maps earlier this month proposing new districts for the Virginia House of Delegates, the Virginia Senate, and the U.S. House of Representatives. The maps were drawn up by two individuals (one Republican and one Democrat) appointed by the court. A 16-member, bipartisan committee was not able to complete the task back in October, necessitating the state Supreme Court’s to weigh in.
The maps are based on the 2020 census and are mandated by both federal and state laws. The districts are required to be nearly equal in population, be equitable, and preserve communities of interest.
The maps have yet to be finalized and could be altered, but the process could be finished by the end of the year. If the maps remain as proposed, rather than Prince William County being split among three U.S. House districts, it would nearly be entirely encompassed in a single district.
The 7th District would cover all the way from Bull Run in the northern part of the county to Quantico in the south. The district would also include parts of Stafford and Fairfax counties.
Many experts think the maps make relative sense and believe, if remain as proposed, would strengthen the Democrats’ position in the county.
What’s perhaps most interesting about the potentially newly created district is that the current representative, Democrat Abigail Spanberger, would no longer be a shoo-in to be re-elected come next November. Spanberger lives in western Henrico County, about 50 miles from the new district’s proposed border. While she could technically run (and hasn’t ruled it out), it’s more likely democratic candidates that call the county home would be elected.
So far, several notables have already expressed interest, including current State Senator Jeremy McPike, Del. Elizabeth Guzman, school board chair Babur Lateef, and former gubernatorial candidate Jennifer Carroll Foy. It’s also possible 2020 lieutenant governor candidate (and former Prince William County delegate) Hala Ayala could run.
As for the Virginia General Assembly, the number of state Senate seats that represent Prince William County would fall from five to three, but all again would almost entirely be within the county. Previously, one of the districts reached as far north as the West Virginia border.
Additionally, only one state senator that represents Prince William County–Democrat Jeremy McPike–actually lives within its borders, so there likely would be two seats open.
Since there’s no incumbent, the door could be open for newbies to state office to enter the political fray.
The county would also lose one representative in the House of Delegates, from eight to seven, but most would now entirely be within the county as well. Additionally, two incumbents–Del. Luke Torian and Del-elect Briana Sewell, both Democrats–would be in the same district. This means they would theoretically have to face each other in an election, while two districts would have no incumbent. Again, this could result in several candidates running who would be new to state office.
Prince William County picked up about 80,000 residents over the last decade, according to 2020 census numbers. That’s a 20 percent increase, making it the second-fastest growing county in Virginia since 2010. It remains the second-most populous county in the Commonwealth, behind only Fairfax County.
The county has increasingly become more Democratic. In 2020, Biden won the county by four more points than Clinton in 2016 and by 5.5 more points than Obama in 2012.
In 2021, all but two elections were won by Democrats, including statewide races. In 2009, this wasn’t the case with Republicans winning all but one race in the county, including the gubernatorial election.
Feature image, vesperstock/stock.adobe.com
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