A lack of housing inventory will continue to be a problem across NoVA, according to a new housing forecast for 2024 from the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors.
The 2024 Regional Market Forecast issued Wednesday by NVAR, in conjunction with the George Mason University’s Center for Regional Analysis, said that Northern Virginia has not yet reached a post-pandemic normal.
“We are hopeful that recent spikes in mortgage rates will moderate and stabilize,” said Ryan McLaughlin, CEO of NVAR, in a news release. “But we expect home values to continue to increase due to historic low housing inventories across the region.”
For the first time, NVAR included Loudoun, Prince William, and Prince William counties in its report because of intraregional migration patterns, basically people moving farther out during the pandemic because they could work from home. NVAR also covers Fairfax and Arlington counties, Alexandria, Falls Church, and Fairfax City.
While the report finds encouraging signs for the economy and housing, including those migration patterns that show NoVA is attracting regional workers and the normalization of hybrid work, it said the economic outlook does show increasing levels of weakness and uncertainty. Because of that, housing sales activity is expected to decline in 2024.
While the national forecast for 2024 calls for a short recession in the next year, NVAR and George Mason have pulled that word “recession” out of the local housing forecast, citing the inflation rate and resilient job market.
“In the DC region, we expect that the economy will slow through the first half of 2024, and we may even see job losses in the second half of the year, but the correction will not be deep or long enough to qualify as a regional recession,” said Terry Clower, director of George Mason University’s Center for Regional Analysis.
The National Association of Realtors lists Washington-Arlington-Alexandria on its 10 estate markets with the most pent-up housing demand.
What to Expect for Each Area in 2024
NVAR’s housing forecast report breaks down what each jurisdiction should expect in the coming year.
In Arlington, it said housing inventories “continue their multi-year drop,” with the number of homes for sale decreasing by 12.5 percent. Median prices for homes will be 0.9 percent higher.
Alexandria prices will rise 3.9 percent, and “inventories will continue dropping causing a 12 percent drop in total 2024 unit sales.” The days of deals for condos are over, the report said.
In Fairfax County, sales will drop 9.9 percent for the year as “inventories tighten more than 2023.” Demand for townhouses will increase prices 4.4 percent in 2022, and condo prices will be flat.
Loudoun County will see inventories decline 26 percent and single-family sales 12 percent. Townhouse inventory will decline 24 percent while prices jump 6 percent. Condo prices will rise 5.8 percent.
“With single family housing prices out of reach for many homebuyers in Arlington, Alexandria, and, increasingly Fairfax, Prince William continues to be a more affordable option,” the report said.
Prices in Prince William County will rise 5.9 percent and inventory will be down 32 percent. Townhouse prices are expected to rise 7.9 percent with inventory declining 28 percent.
And in Stafford County, the “seasonal surge in summer housing inventories will not emerge,” the report said. Prices for single-family homes will rise 2.9 percent, but inventories for those houses will decline 21 percent in 2024. Townhouse inventories will decline 39 percent and prices rise 6.1 percent.
Feature image, stock.adobe.com
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